Nigeria is setting its sights on the next frontier of global investment credibility: reinclusion in the MSCI and JPMorgan indices, after securing a landmark return to the FTSE Russell frontier market index following years of exclusion driven by foreign exchange restrictions and capital repatriation difficulties.

Emomotimi Agama, Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, confirmed the ambition in a statement to BusinessDay. “We are moving towards getting reincluded on the MSCI and JP Morgan index,” Agama said. “All of the progress we are making is a reflection of the growth of the market.”

The FTSE restoration, the latest major international recognition of Nigeria’s improved market accessibility, followed a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s foreign exchange framework. Nigeria unified its exchange rate in 2023, dismantling a multi-tiered currency regime that had long deterred foreign capital. The policy shift has drawn dollar inflows back into the country and helped push external reserves to $54 billion last week, the highest level in 18 years, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria.

FTSE Russell confirmed that Nigeria now meets all five quality-of-markets criteria required for frontier market status, specifically noting that FX queues have been cleared and that international institutional investors are no longer experiencing material delays in repatriating capital.

The road back to MSCI and JPMorgan will be considerably longer. MSCI currently classifies Nigeria as a Standalone Market; a status imposed in 2024 after the index provider concluded that persistent foreign exchange liquidity problems were preventing international investors from reliably moving money into and out of Nigerian equities. JPMorgan removed Nigeria from its Government Bond Index for Emerging Markets in 2015, citing currency controls, after only three years of inclusion.

The scars from those exclusions run deep. Before its removal, Nigeria accounted for a meaningful share of frontier market equity benchmarks. International investors who were locked inside the market during the 2015 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023 forex restriction periods have been slow to return. Consequently, index reinclusion would restore the benchmarking visibility that makes Nigerian assets easier to analyse, trade, and hold as part of broader emerging and frontier market allocations.

Charlie Robertson, an emerging markets strategist, said the conditions for Nigeria’s return are increasingly credible. “With the right policy mix, Nigeria could return,” he said. “Back in 2012, just being included in one of those bond indexes was expected to result in $1 billion of inflows.”

Furthermore, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO, expected to debut on September 14, represents another significant milestone in Nigeria’s capital market deepening, adding liquidity and visibility to a market that is actively competing for its place among the world’s frontier and emerging market destinations.

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