For much of the past two years, conversations about Nigeria’s economy have been dominated by inflation, exchange rate volatility, rising living costs and the painful consequences of economic reforms.

Yet, according to renowned economist and founder of B. Adedipe Associates Limited (BAA Consult), Prof. Biodun Adedipe, there are growing signs that the narrative may be changing.

Speaking during the weekly economic webinar series organised by Winning Edge Global Services, Adedipe presented his mid-year review of the Nigerian economy and outlook for the second half of 2026, arguing that while challenges remain, several key indicators suggest the economy is gradually finding its footing.

“The narrative about Nigeria is changing gradually,” he told participants, backing his position with data drawn from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other official sources.

The economist noted that Nigeria recorded a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 3.89 percent in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the 3.13 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, although slightly below the 4.07 percent achieved in the last quarter of 2025.

Inflation, which has remained one of the biggest concerns for businesses and households, also showed signs of moderation. Headline inflation stood at 15.93 percent in May 2026, compared to levels above 30 percent recorded before the rebasing exercise. The Monetary Policy Rate has remained unchanged at 26.50 percent since February.

Perhaps more significantly, Adedipe pointed to developments in the foreign exchange market, where the naira has appreciated by 3.81 percent in the official market and 4.93 percent in the parallel market since the beginning of the year.

He attributed part of this stability to the Central Bank’s commitment to maintaining exchange rate discipline and avoiding further devaluation.

The country’s external reserves have also strengthened considerably. According to figures presented during the webinar, reserves stood at $51.85 billion as of July 13, 2026, the highest level recorded in 17 years. The reserves provide nearly 14 months of import cover, far above the international benchmark of three months.

Capital inflows also improved sharply. Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in capital importation during the first quarter of 2026, representing an increase of almost 84 percent compared to the same period in 2025.

The capital market has equally reflected growing investor confidence. As of July 14, 2026, the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index stood at 242,870.44 points, delivering a year-to-date return of 56.07 percent, while market capitalisation rose to ₦155.85 trillion.

Adedipe however cautioned against viewing these improvements in isolation.

He reminded participants that 2026 has been shaped by significant global uncertainty, particularly the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which intensified earlier in the year and sent shockwaves through energy and commodity markets.

Reflecting on a question he posed to business leaders before the crisis emerged, Adedipe asked: “Does your organisation have a bridge strong enough to withstand the turbulence?”

In his view, Nigeria’s ability to weather the storm was made possible by a combination of factors, including economic reforms initiated since May 2023, improved domestic refining capacity, stronger foreign reserves, expanding fertilizer exports and growing business confidence.

According to him, these factors provided important buffers that helped shield the economy from some of the external shocks experienced across global markets.

Nevertheless, not all indicators paint a positive picture.

Adedipe acknowledged that while Nigeria’s GDP measured in naira has risen substantially since the reform era began, the economy’s dollar value has not experienced a similar increase due largely to the depreciation of the naira following exchange rate liberalisation.

Data presented during the session showed that GDP increased from ₦17.99 trillion in May 2023 to ₦52.6 trillion in May 2026. However, when converted to dollars, GDP declined slightly from $38.97 billion to $38.30 billion over the same period.

“There have been several arguments that the reforms have caused only pains. I disagree,” he said.

He pointed to ongoing infrastructure projects, improved fiscal conditions at sub-national levels, the clearance of salary and pension arrears, expanded consumer credit schemes, student financing initiatives and targeted tax relief measures as evidence that some benefits are beginning to reach citizens and businesses.

For the economist, the focus should now be on deepening the reforms rather than reversing them.

“The conversation should be how to deepen these and not to completely ignore them,” he said.

Looking ahead, Adedipe expressed cautious optimism about the second half of the year.

BAA Consult projects GDP growth of 4.59 percent for 2026, slightly above projections by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, while inflation is expected to moderate further to 14.45 percent by year-end.

External reserves are projected to rise to $52.17 billion, supported by continued reforms, improved investor confidence and stronger foreign exchange earnings.

However, he identified exchange rate stability as the single most important variable that could determine whether Nigeria achieves its medium-term ambitions.

According to him, maintaining a stable currency remains critical to driving investment, supporting industrial growth, improving competitiveness and advancing the country’s aspiration of becoming a $1 trillion economy.

For businesses, investors and policymakers, Adedipe’s message was clear: the economy is not yet where it needs to be, but the indicators suggest that the foundations for a more stable and resilient future are gradually being laid.