Dentsu has predicted a mid-single-digit growth of 4.6% in global advertising spending for 2024, driven by digital advertising, retail media, and connected TV. The holding company forecasts a 4.6% growth in spending, reaching $752.8 billion, a figure consistent with the 4.7% growth forecasted in its May report.

The Dentsu Global Ad Spend forecast predicts a significant year ahead for the media industry, marked by the retirement of third-party cookies, causing substantial effects on the targeting and measurement of digital advertising. Additionally, Amazon is poised to unveil a new ad-supported plan for Prime Video.

The forecast indicates a projected growth of $33 billion in the global advertising market next year, reaching a total of $752.8 billion. This growth is attributed to key media events such as the U.S. presidential election, the Olympics in Paris, and UEFA’s European championships tournament in Germany.

Dentsu’s report indicates that in the upcoming year, advertising spending in the top 12 global markets will constitute 0.75% of their respective GDPs. This aligns with the ad spend to GDP ratio observed over the past two decades, with countries like Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. consistently allocating a larger share of their GDPs to advertising.

According to Will Swayne, the Global Practice President for Media at Dentsu, the report highlights an increasing trend where advertisers are investing more to reach their target audiences, leading to a heightened advertising impact on audiences.

“Audiences are receiving an increasing volume of ads, so finding new ways to drive ad effectiveness has never been more important,” Swayne said. “We are seeing an increased focus on planning and buying for attention, over pure reach, as more brands seek to maximize their return on investment and capitalize on the attention economy tools available to them.”

Dentsu foresees a 6.5% growth in digital sector ad revenue in 2024, reaching $442.6 billion, constituting 58.8% of the total global advertising spend. This projection aligns with the 6.3% growth observed by the agency holding company in 2023, and Dentsu expects sustained mid-single-digit growth through 2026.

The retail media sector is experiencing rapid expansion, with Dentsu projecting a robust 17.2% compound annual growth rate over the next three years. Programmatic channels, already representing over 70% of digital ad spend, are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth rates, with Dentsu forecasting a 10.2% three-year compound annual growth rate.

In contrast to GroupM and Magna, Dentsu expresses a more optimistic outlook for TV ad spend. After two consecutive years of decline, a modest 2.9% growth is expected in 2024, capturing 23.0% of the total ad spend.