Nigeria may plunge into a second recession, says Agbaje
Senior Consultant/CEO, RTC Advisory Services Limited, Mr. Opeyemi Agbaje, has warned that if urgent steps are not taken by the Federal Government to address the economic crisis that is bedeviling the country, Nigeria may plunge into a second recessionary period come 2019.
Agbaje disclose this while delivering his keynote address to the members of the Media Independent Practitioners Association of Nigeria(MIPAN) at the MIPAN 2019 Business Outlook Session themed: “Succeeding in the Nigerian Economy: The Challenges of Indigenous Businesses” at the Radisson Blu Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos.
According to him, the country’s exit from the first recessionary period was neither achieved through efforts by the government nor contributions from the private sector but noted that Nigeria came out of recession because of the improvement in oil prices globally.
He, however, lamented that the indices that were prevalent during the recessionary periods of 2016 are gradually coming back due to global decline in oil price coupled with the resurgent of Boko Haram.
Agbaje stressed that the Federal Government should as a matter of urgency implement the recommendations of the 2017 Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) which was launched in April 2017 to solve this problem.
In his words: “Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has shown that for two consecutive quarters Nigeria economy is in continued decline. We might fall into recession again. Nigeria needs to change its policies and the prescriptions are in the 2017 Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). It needs to be fully implemented but if we don’t; we are headed for crisis”.
While appealing to MIPAN members and other stakeholders at the event to be pragmatic in carrying out their business strategies, the RTC boss pointed out that come 2019, there will be three economic outlooks scenarios: Plodding Along; Soaring High and Meltdown.
Agbaje noted that there is a 50% probability that Nigeria’s economy will continue the way it is – Plodding Along, a 30% probability of experiencing a Meltdown, as well as a 20% probability of Soaring High if the ERGP is fully implemented.
The RTC boss, however, encouraged MIPAN members to explore various opportunities stressing that despite the challenges facing the country, opportunities abound in areas like media, mix sector performance, technology, amongst others.
To him, Nigeria is a massive consumption driven market.For brands, this is a great opportunity that lies ahead for agencies to explore.
Speaking in the same vein, MIPAN President, Dr. Ken Ikpe, stated that2018 has being a tough year for an average Nigerian emphasizing that things must get worse before it gets better.
In his words:”This event is organized to prepare us for the coming year and help us review this outgoing year; so that is why we always hold this event in November. If 2017 was a very tough year, I am still finding the adjective to describe 2018 because 2018 presents a true reflection of the Nigerian economy.”
“It is this difficulty and adjustment that most Nigerians and a lot of businesses are struggling with but I see a brighter future come 2019.But if it turns out to be better, don’t think that all is well and don’t because of that go back to engage in frivolities, be cautious and manage your business well”
The MIPAN 2019 Business Outlook Session planning committee had: Jonadab Egbowon as the Chairman, Feyisola Olukoya as the Vice Chairman while Stephen Onaivi, Charles Imueze, Kola Odusanya and Ayobami Oduntan worked at the capacity of members of the committee.
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