Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow 4.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2026; the fastest second-quarter expansion in five years, according to a model-based nowcast prepared by BusinessDay ahead of the official National Bureau of Statistics GDP release.

If confirmed by the NBS, the reading would extend three consecutive years of improving second-quarter growth, rising from 2.51 per cent in Q2 2023 to 3.19 per cent in Q2 2024 and 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025.

The projection is supported by a broad range of high-frequency economic indicators. Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.56 million barrels per day in June 2026, one of the country’s highest monthly production levels in recent years; exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for the second consecutive month, according to the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.

Additionally, non-oil GDP expanded 3.94 per cent on Q1 2026, an improvement of 0.75 percentage points from a year earlier. Telecommunications grew 10.98 per cent on Q1 2026, finance and insurance expanded 8.54 per cent, and construction recorded 6.38 per cent growth. Trade remained the largest contributor to GDP at 17.80 per cent, followed closely by crop production at 17.38 per cent.

Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, attributed the improvement to higher oil export earnings, increased exports of refined petroleum products, stronger capital inflows, and improving macroeconomic conditions. “Nigeria is likely to record a modest improvement in second-quarter growth as higher oil export earnings, increased exports of refined petroleum products, stronger capital inflows and improving macroeconomic conditions continue to support economic activity despite external shocks,” he said.

Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, said stronger foreign exchange reserves and improved liquidity in the domestic stock market are creating favourable macroeconomic conditions for growth. “Rising external buffers and improved market liquidity are boosting investor confidence and should support stronger economic activity in the second quarter,” he said.

However, analysts note that stronger headline growth has not always translated proportionally into employment or household purchasing power; particularly in labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and trade, which support the largest share of Nigeria’s workforce.

The NBS is expected to release the official Q2 2026 GDP data in the coming weeks.

SOURCE: Nigeria’s economy set for fastest Q2 growth in five years

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