Tackle VUCA with RIDS, Apatira counsels marketers
By Ibidunni Banjoko
Aderemi Apatira, CEO of Pawaplus has stressed how the business world has changed over the past few decades. This formed the crux of her presentation during the 2023 first quarter MARKETING EDGE Summit.
The virtual Summit, which had the theme “In search of Innovation: The Role of Policymakers & Market Leaders in a VUCA Economy, Climbing the Value Chain: Scenario Planning as Panacea for Complex Marketing Environment, and Strategic Relationship as Useful Tool for Navigating Changing Ecosystem”, was held virtually with attendance form all over Africa, Europe, The Americas and Asia.
While speaking on the theme, In Search of Innovation: The Role of Policymakers & Market Leaders in a VUCA Economy, she said: “The business world has changed dramatically over the past few decades, and we now live in a connected society where change can be fast-paced, constant and unpredictable”.
“Rapid advances in technology created an environment where the internet, smartphones, and social media are ubiquitous, and global events such as the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID pandemic, and, most recently, conflict in Ukraine, have increased the sense of turbulence, danger and unpredictability”.
A state of flux has replaced the sense of certainty, stability and familiarity that people were used to. This type of environment can be described using the “VUCA” acronym,
Tracing the etymology of the acronym, Apatira said the United States Army War College was one of the first organizations to use it, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. Military planners were worried about the radically different and unfamiliar international security environment that had emerged, so they used VUCA which stands for ‘Volatile’, ‘Uncertain’, ‘Complex’ and Ambiguous.’ to describe it.
Other acronyms to describe the business environment are VUCA DD with DD standing for ‘Diverse’ and ‘Dynamic’; BANI which stands for ‘Brittle’, ‘Anxious’, ‘Non-Linear’, and ‘Incomprehensible’.
According to Apatira, the Nigerian business environment has manifested symptoms of both VUCA and BANI. She contended that poor monetary policy, volatility of our foreign exchange rate and inflation, inability to anticipate or predict the shapes of things to come with banditry, insurgency, global power tussles, election and post-election crisis, energy crisis (unavailability, rising prices, fluctuations) etc. – all these fueling rising unemployment projected to rise to 37 percent being our reality; increasing pace of change nationally and globally increases, while policies and resilience had remained static; and there are overlapping policies and agencies of government, variations of policy across states and ethnic divides, etc which dovetails into ambiguity resulting in lack of, or incorrect data at best giving rise inability to interpret and hence make clear cut decisions and policies are a all symptomatic of VUCA.
“Beyond volatility, the sudden and unforeseen shock of COVID19 on the global economy shook the very fabric of the Nigerian economy and business environment. The seemingly stable agro economic system was shaken up as the price of food began a climb that saw inflation going through the roof. The value of Naira became a nightmare taking with it the energy market culminating in a never ending energy crisis. To cap this is the recent currency change process that saw the further collapse of the livelihood of the common man. With increasing brittleness, everyday living is becoming more terrifying. People are being drawn into a state of helplessness such that they have to buy Naira to be able to access the bare necessities of food and health.”
She said further that, The Nigerian environment is “Non-linear –just as the rest of the world is increasingly non-linear where there is no more law of cause and effect – these things are either completely uncoupled or disproportionate. The most minor issues may have unfathomable and complex consequences – that might not be detected until much later. Thus, it becomes difficult to deduce causes. You start to wonder at the cause of the unending fuel scarcity, of naira scarcity, of rising inflation, lack of credit for business, etc; and incomprehensible because the voice on the street is “we don’t even know what is going on anymore”. People can’t seem to comprehend how things have degenerated to the point it is and what they can do. Everything influences everything else on various levels.”
Apatira then recommended the application of Resilience, Inclusion, Diversity and Sustainability, RIDS, to navigate out of any stifling business environment, be it VUCA, VUCA DD or BANI.
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