Nigeria’s digital economy revenue is projected to reach $18.3 billion by 2026, nearly doubling from $9.97 billion recorded in 2021 and representing a fourfold increase from $5.09 billion in 2019, according to Olatunde Amolegbe, Managing Director of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited. The forecast positions Nigeria as Africa’s leading technology-driven market, supported by fintech expansion, rising internet penetration, and artificial intelligence adoption.

Amolegbe delivered the projection while presenting a keynote address at the Business Journal Annual Lecture 2025, themed “AI & Digital Economy: Projecting the Future of Economic Growth in Nigeria.” He cited global data showing the digital economy accounted for 15.5 per cent of global GDP in 2016, with projections reaching 25 per cent by 2026, indicating Nigeria’s growth trajectory aligns with the continental Digital Economy for Africa initiative targeting full digital enablement by 2030.

Nigeria currently leads Africa in startup investment while hosting five unicorns, Interswitch, Flutterwave, OPay, Andela, and Moniepoint, reflecting strong private-sector innovation driving digital transformation. Internet penetration reached approximately 107 million users in early 2025, driven largely by mobile-first connectivity, which accounts for over 90 per cent of internet access nationwide.

The telecommunications sector contributed 9.2 per cent to real GDP in the second quarter of 2025, while fintech and digital payments continue to expand through the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System, evolving regulations, and rising consumer adoption. Emerging technologies, including AI, blockchain, streaming platforms, and social media, are reshaping Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape, with the eNaira launch in 2021 demonstrating early digital innovation adoption.

Amolegbe identified agriculture, healthcare, education, infrastructure, and energy as sectors offering significant untapped digital potential. AI applications could improve agricultural yields, strengthen healthcare delivery, expand access to digital learning, support smarter infrastructure planning, and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy systems, addressing current productivity constraints.

Nigeria’s AI-driven growth receives support from policy initiatives, including NITDA’s Artificial Intelligence Strategy, and expanding international bandwidth through eight submarine cables delivering over 40 terabits per second capacity, enabling data-intensive applications and cloud service adoption across enterprises and consumers.

However, structural challenges threaten full value realisation. Broadband penetration stood at 48.81 per cent as of August 2025, significantly below the National Broadband Plan’s 70 per cent target. Over 45 per cent of Nigerians live in rural areas, yet only 23 per cent of rural communities have internet access, creating a digital divide that excludes millions from digital economy opportunities.

Regulatory bottlenecks further compound infrastructure deficits. Although the federal government agreed in 2020 to cap Right-of-Way fees at ₦145 per metre, some states now charge up to ₦9,477 per metre, creating deployment barriers that discourage telecommunications infrastructure investment required to achieve connectivity targets.

Amolegbe stressed that unlocking the full value of Nigeria’s digital economy requires stronger governance frameworks, deeper talent development, sustained digital infrastructure investment, and enhanced regional collaboration. With coordinated policies and proper execution, Nigeria could create millions of jobs while emerging as a continental leader in the AI-powered global digital economy.

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