Guideline’s U.S. Ad Market Tracker’s recent estimates reveal a 7% decline in the national linear TV advertising market during the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.

The analysis indicates a significant decrease in demand, particularly for traditional entertainment programming, which witnessed a 16% drop in ad revenue year-over-year. In contrast, live sports experienced a modest increase of 3.2% in ad revenue. Notably, high-demand NFL programming in the fourth quarter saw a substantial 22% rise in ad revenue.

Among the primary advertising categories, only pharmaceuticals demonstrated an increase in ad spending on national linear TV outlets, with a 3.5% rise compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

“The fourth quarter of 2023 represented a microcosm of the U.S. National Linear TV landscape,” observed Guideline Insights Director Nicole McCurnin, adding, “Live sports ad revenue and market share alike crested, thanks to the NFL, while entertainment programming waned to a trough, amid a challenging climate of labor strikes and streaming services.”

According to Guideline’s U.S. Ad Market Tracker, the national TV advertising market index hit its lowest December level ever by the end of 2023, standing at 87.48. This marks a 16% decrease from its value of 104.15 in December 2017, which was the first year Guideline started tracking it.