In a comprehensive report recently released by the International Wine and Spirits Research (IWSR), the landscape of beverage alcohol ecommerce is undergoing a nuanced transformation, transitioning from the sensational growth witnessed during the pandemic to a calculated period of normalization.

The study, a meticulous analysis of the world’s leading 16 markets, projects a deliberate slowdown in sales growth, with expectations to reach just under US$40 billion by 2027. This marks a departure from the remarkable +31% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) observed between 2019 and 2021, settling into a more sustainable +4.5% CAGR from 2022 to 2027.

Guy Wolfe, Head of Ecommerce Insights at IWSR, emphasizes, “After the pandemic boom, ecommerce value saw a nuanced correction in 2022 (-2%) as restrictions in most markets were removed, prompting a return of consumers to on-trade establishments and traditional brick-and-mortar stores.”

The IWSR Ecommerce Strategic Study 2023 illuminates the evolving landscape, projecting the overall ecommerce value share of total beverage alcohol (TBA) to stabilize at around 4%-4.5%. This follows a noteworthy rise from 2.1% in 2018 to 3.7% in 2021.

“While the overall proportion of consumers shopping online has witnessed a decline, those who continue to do so are intensifying their frequency, particularly in China, where online purchasing frequency is still on an upward trajectory,” highlights Wolfe.

The report delves Into a profound shift in consumer behavior, shedding light on the departure of transient users who adopted ecommerce out of necessity during the pandemic while maintaining a robust appeal among ecommerce loyalists.

China and the US emerge as the primary drivers of absolute value growth for alcohol in ecommerce, with the study forecasting a 2022-27 value CAGR of +6% for both countries. This growth, while notable, is surpassed by the accelerated projections for Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.

Despite the projected deceleration in online alcohol sales growth, ecommerce is anticipated to outperform total beverage alcohol sales through 2027, underlining the enduring influence of digital channels.

Richard Halstead, COO Consumer Insights at IWSR, accentuates the persistence of value-seeking behaviors in ecommerce amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The report underscores motivations such as stocking up and buying in bulk, urging brand owners to offer robust value propositions beyond mere discounting.

Category Shifts and Consumer Research Habits: Unveiling Patterns

Within the alcohol sector, the report unveils dynamic category shifts, with beer projected to expand at the fastest pace, boasting a value CAGR of +8% between 2022 and 2027. This growth is driven by significant upticks in China, the US, Brazil, and Mexico. Spirits follow closely at +5%, with agave and whisky leading gains in the US and brandy and whisky witnessing notable surges in China.

The study reveals that online alcohol shoppers engage in more extensive pre-purchase research compared to their brick-and-mortar counterparts. On average, online shoppers are twice as likely to invest a considerable amount of time researching products before making a purchase.

Brand owners are tactically advised to tailor their content and digital engagement strategies to maximize impact, recognizing the varying degrees of research across markets and demographics. As the beverage alcohol ecommerce landscape continues to evolve, the industry finds itself at the cusp of a dynamic phase of sustainable growth, navigating the intricacies of consumer behavior and market dynamics.