Economic realities shaping Nigeria’s business environment in 2026 came into sharp focus as the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria, ARCON, convened industry stakeholders for a webinar session themed Navigating Economic Realities: Lessons from 2025, Strategies for 2026, held on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.

Delivering the keynote presentation, Muyiwa Oni, Regional Head of Equity Research, West Africa at Standard Bank Group, provided a detailed assessment of Nigeria’s macroeconomic direction, highlighting growth expectations, inflation trends, foreign exchange stability, and investment outlook for the year ahead.

The financial markets analyst explained that although the past two years had been challenging for businesses and households, current indicators suggest gradual economic improvement driven by policy adjustments, stabilizing exchange rates, and renewed investment in key sectors.

According to the Standard Bank research specialist, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by about 4.2 percent in 2026, with possible upside if reforms continue to gain traction.

He noted that international financial institutions, including the IMF and World Bank, have also revised their growth projections upward, reflecting improving macroeconomic conditions.

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The keynote speaker pointed to oil sector recovery as a major contributor to economic improvement, explaining that crude oil production has steadily increased after declining in previous years.

Average production, he said, is projected to reach about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2026, supported by reduced pipeline vandalism, renewed investor confidence, and planned capital inflows into the energy sector.

He added that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company continues to pursue significant investment targets aimed at strengthening production capacity over the coming years.

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Beyond oil, the equity research expert highlighted the Dangote Refinery’s expected contribution to non oil GDP growth, noting that increased domestic refining capacity could stimulate employment, infrastructure activity, and industrial productivity.

Turning to inflation and monetary policy, the investment strategist explained that price pressures remain a major concern for households, although gradual moderation is expected as exchange rate conditions stabilize and policy tightening begins to yield results. He added that interest rates may begin to ease over time, creating room for stronger credit expansion across the banking sector.

The Standard Bank economist projected up to 15 percent growth in bank lending in 2026, explaining that declining yields and improved liquidity conditions could support private sector borrowing.

He also addressed concerns about government borrowing crowding out private investment, noting that strong demand from foreign portfolio investors and domestic liquidity conditions have helped stabilize the financial markets despite large fiscal deficits.

On the foreign exchange environment, the keynote presenter said recent reforms have improved market confidence and liquidity, creating a more stable outlook compared with the volatility experienced over the past three to four years.

Oni added that fiscal developments, government debt management, and the broader political environment would continue to influence economic performance in the medium term.

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The session, which formed part of ARCON’s ongoing industry engagement initiatives, also featured contributions from Lanre Adisa, Chairman of the Heads of Advertising Sectoral Groups, HASG; Emeka Chris Okeke, Managing Partner and Chief Executive Officer of MediaFuse Dentsu International; and Manpreet Singh, Chief Marketing Officer at Tolaram Group, who shared perspectives on how economic conditions are shaping marketing investment decisions, brand strategy, and business sustainability across sectors.

The webinar was moderated by Brenda Nwagwu, Vice President of Media Independent Practitioners Association of Nigeria, MIPAN, who guided discussions around the implications of macroeconomic shifts for marketing communications, media investment planning, and corporate decision making.