Nigeria’s journey towards sustainable economic growth will depend less on the promise of macroeconomic stability and more on the ability of businesses to innovate, build productive systems, create local value and expand their ambition beyond the country’s borders, according to Dr Femi Olaiya, group chief executive Officer, Jeschril Group Limited.

Speaking on the theme: “Empowering Businesses Through Innovation and Leadership for Sustainable Growth,” at the African Business Conference, Dr Olaiya presented a compelling roadmap for Nigerian businesses seeking to move beyond survival and position themselves for long-term growth.

His address, titled Nigeria Rising: From Economic Reset to Sustainable Growth, placed business leaders at the centre of Nigeria’s next development phase. While acknowledging the impact of economic reforms and the pressure they have placed on companies and households, he maintained that the real test ahead is whether Nigerian enterprises can become more resilient, efficient, innovative and globally competitive.

“The next chapter of Nigeria’s economic story will not be defined simply by whether our economy stabilises. It will be defined by whether our businesses can innovate, become more productive, build stronger institutions, scale and create sustainable value.”

Nigeria’s economy has experienced major adjustments since 2023, particularly following fuel-subsidy removal and foreign-exchange reforms. The changes increased operating costs for businesses, raised transport prices, weakened consumer purchasing power and made imported goods and raw materials more expensive.

Dr Olaiya recalled that businesses were forced to review their financial projections repeatedly as inflation and exchange-rate volatility disrupted planning.

“For some companies, their annual budget became obsolete before the ink had dried,” he said. “You prepared a beautiful annual budget in January. By March, it became ‘Budget Revision 1.’ By June: ‘Budget Revision 4.’ By September you simply stopped numbering them.”

Yet, he argued that the difficult adjustment period has created an opportunity for Nigeria to move towards a more realistic and predictable economic system. He noted that the country’s economy has shown signs of improvement, including growth in the non-oil sector, stronger government revenues and a more market-reflective foreign-exchange structure.

“Predictability can sometimes be almost as important as price,” he said, stressing that businesses need an environment in which they can find, price and plan around foreign exchange.

However, Dr Olaiya warned against equating improved macroeconomic indicators with widespread prosperity. Food insecurity, high living costs, weak household purchasing power and expensive commercial borrowing remain serious concerns for businesses and citizens.

“Macroeconomic improvement is not the same thing as prosperity,” he stated. “Stabilization is Phase One. Now comes the much harder part: growth.”

From Survival to Scale

At the heart of Dr Olaiya’s presentation were six major shifts he believes Nigerian businesses must embrace.

The first is a transition from survival to scale. Nigerian enterprises have become accustomed to navigating unreliable power supply, changing regulations, high interest rates, supply-chain disruptions and fluctuating exchange rates. But the next level of growth, he said, requires more than resilience.

“Resilience without ambition can become stagnation,” Dr Olaiya said. “A business can become very good at surviving without ever becoming capable of scaling.”

He urged business owners to replace short-term survival thinking with a deliberate growth strategy. “The question is no longer simply, ‘How do I get through this year?’ It must become, ‘How do I become ten times bigger?’”

Drawing from the fintech sector, he cited Flutterwave as an example of a company that addressed a broader African opportunity rather than limiting itself to the Nigerian market. The key lesson, he said, is to “build your organization for the size of the opportunity, not the size of your current business.”

Productivity, Local Value and Strong Institutions

The second shift is from cost-cutting to productivity. According to Dr Olaiya, businesses may have become skilled at reducing expenses, but cutting costs alone cannot create world-class companies.

“You cannot cut your company to greatness,” he said.

Instead, he called for more investment in technology, data, artificial intelligence, automation and renewable energy. Companies that succeed will be those that create more value per employee, per asset and per naira invested.

“The competitive advantage of tomorrow will increasingly be measured by output per employee, output per asset and output per naira invested,” he said.

The third shift focuses on moving from importing value to creating value locally. Dr Olaiya argued that Nigeria must look beyond exporting raw commodities and importing finished products. Companies should identify where the country has the talent, resources, market demand or strategic advantage to produce, process, package and manufacture competitively.

“Why export cocoa and import chocolate?” he asked. “Why export raw agricultural commodities without processing them?”

He pointed to local cement production and the Dangote Refinery as examples of how domestic production can retain value, strengthen supply chains and create jobs. He added that local value creation depends on ecosystems involving farmers, manufacturers, storage providers, transporters, engineers, financial institutions and consumers.

“Local value creation is therefore not only about individual companies,” he said. “It is about building ecosystems.”

The fourth shift is from founder-led businesses to lasting institutions. Dr Olaiya said many businesses are driven by exceptional founders, but companies cannot become scalable, financeable or durable if every decision rests with one individual.

“If every cheque requires your signature… every customer knows only you… every major decision waits for you… you have not built an institution yet,” he said. “You have created a very successful form of self-employment.”

He urged founders to build boards, develop management teams, document processes, strengthen financial reporting and prepare for succession. “The goal should not be to make yourself indispensable,” he said. “The goal is to build an organisation that remains exceptional without your daily intervention.”

Building for Africa

Dr Olaiya also urged businesses to adopt strategic growth models through partnerships, acquisitions, joint ventures, private capital and alliances. Organic growth remains important, he said, but it is not the only route to scale.

“Instead of asking only, ‘How can I grow?’ perhaps we should increasingly ask: ‘Who should I grow with?’”

Finally, he challenged Nigerian companies to see Africa, rather than Nigeria alone, as their natural market. He urged entrepreneurs to develop enterprises that can expand across borders and compete internationally.

“Nigeria is an extraordinary market. But Africa is bigger,” he said. “Our ambition should be: Build in Nigeria. Scale across Africa. Compete globally.”

Using the Dangote Refinery as a practical example, Dr Olaiya said ambitious projects can be built despite difficult conditions. The refinery, he noted, was developed in Nigeria through recession, COVID-19, currency devaluation, infrastructure constraints and financing challenges.

“The lesson is not the refinery,” he said. “The lesson is the mindset.”

For Nigerian business leaders, that mindset requires moving from asking, “Why can’t this be done?” to asking, “Given the challenges, how do we get it done?”

“Difficult does not mean impossible,” Dr Olaiya concluded. “And perhaps the next Dangote Refinery is not a refinery. Perhaps it is in energy, housing, agriculture, healthcare, logistics, technology or education. The question is: Who is going to build it?