Global ad spend to surpass $1 trillion in 2024
By Felicia Nwosu
Global advertising spend is projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2024, reaching $1.08 trillion, according to WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25. The report said this represents a 10.7 percent increase over last year, adding $104 billion in advertiser investment, the second-highest absolute rise on record.
The report affirmed that global advertisers are expected to spend $299 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, with retail media platforms seeing a 16.4 percent increase in ad spend to $46.2 billion. Retailers are projected to invest $45.6 billion during the holiday season, with a growing portion directed toward connected TV platforms for enhanced targeting.
WARC forecasts continued growth in global ad spend, with a 7.6 percent increase expected in 2025 and a 7 percent rise in 2026, bringing the market value to $1.24 trillion. However, the report warns of potential challenges ahead, including regulatory pressures on major digital platforms and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
The report, based on data from 100 markets worldwide, incorporates a proprietary neural network that analyzes over two million-fold data points, including macroeconomic trends, media owner revenues, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption patterns, and media cost inflation. It disclosed digital platforms are driving the surge; with pure-play internet advertising set to grow by 14.1 percent to $741.4 billion, accounting for nearly 69 percent of global ad spend.
It further explained that Amazon is expected to earn $16.9 billion in ad revenue during the holiday season, making it a leading beneficiary of year-end advertising. There is also an indication that social media remains the largest digital advertising sector, with forecasted revenues of $252.7 billion for 2024. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok have seen stronger-than-expected results, leading to a 19.3 percent rise in social media ad spend.
Attesting to the surge, it also maintained that traditional media is also experiencing a modest recovery. Linear TV ad spend is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year to $153.6 billion, driven by political advertising in the U.S. and major global events like the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament. However, TV’s share of global ad spend has declined to 14.3 percent, down from 41.3 percent in 2013.
According to the report, search advertising continues to be a significant revenue driver, with Google capturing 22.1 percent of all ad spend outside of China. The company is projected to earn $197.7 billion from search ads in 2024. However, Google’s dominance is under scrutiny, as the U.S. Department of Justice recently highlighted concerns over its market control, putting $32.9 billion in potential growth over the next two years at risk.
Competitors like Microsoft’s Bing hold just 5.9 percent of the market, despite significant investment, while Apple, currently earning $5.1 billion from search ads, may explore launching its own search engine.
Meanwhile, global advertising expenditure, on the other hand, is expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time this year, reaching $1.08 trillion. The 10.7 percent increase marks the fastest annual growth in six years, driven by robust performance across digital channels and resurgence in traditional media. If the exceptional rebound of 2021, which saw a 27.9 percent surge post-pandemic, is excluded, this year’s growth would represent the largest single-year increase on record.
Online platforms continue to lead the expansion, with pure-play internet companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta accounting for the bulk of the rise. Digital advertising is forecast to grow by 14.1 percent to $741.4 billion, making up nearly 69 percent of total global ad spend.
Within this, social media remains the dominant segment, projected to generate $252.7 billion this year. Stronger-than-anticipated performances from Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok have boosted the sector, which is now on track for a 19.3 percent annual increase.
While digital media dominates, traditional television has also shown signs of recovery. Linear TV spending is expected to grow by 1.9 percent to $153.6 billion, rebounding from consecutive years of decline.
The uptick has been fueled by a surge in political advertising in the United States during the final quarter, alongside international sporting events such as the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament. However, TV’s share of the global advertising market has shrunk significantly over the past decade, now accounting for just 14.3 percent, down from a peak of 41.3 percent in 2013.
Search advertising continues to be a key revenue stream, with Google maintaining a commanding lead. The tech giant is projected to generate $197.7 billion from search ads in 2024, representing 90 percent of global search ad spending outside China. Regulatory scrutiny has intensified, with the U.S. Department of Justice recently declaring Google’s dominance an effective monopoly in the search market. Despite significant investment, Microsoft’s Bing remains a distant competitor, capturing just 5.9 percent of search ad revenue outside China. Apple, which currently earns $5.1 billion from search ads through its App Store, could potentially enter the market with its own search engine, although high costs and strategic concerns may deter such a move.
As the holiday season approaches, advertisers are expected to spend $299.2 billion during the fourth quarter, with a significant portion allocated to retail media. Retailers are projected to invest $45.6 billion during this critical period, a 5 percent increase from last year. Of this, $6.8 billion will go to television, with nearly a quarter directed toward connected TV platforms, which offer enhanced targeting capabilities.
Retail media platforms are poised to experience a record-breaking quarter, with global spending forecast to rise by 16.4 percent to $46.2 billion. Amazon alone is expected to secure $16.9 billion from advertisers during this period, driven by the technology and electronics sector, which is set to invest $7.2 billion in online retail advertising—more than triple its expenditure on TV.
Looking ahead, global advertising growth is expected to continue, with projected increases of 7.6 percent in 2025 and 7 percent in 2026, pushing total market value to $1.24 trillion. However, industry experts caution that regulatory challenges facing major digital platforms and ongoing geopolitical tensions could create uncertainties for the sector. The report highlights that 2025 could be a pivotal year, particularly as regulatory pressures on Google and TikTok intensify, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.
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